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A mere 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery admonished him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his performances were a sign or a cause for the team's wider issues.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. When the in-form star curled home his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and having failed to win any of their first six matches, find themselves only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?

This is a rather hard question to resolve. History, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.

As per the data, on just two occasions has the side registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a club which has strung together 10 in a row, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the margins are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on their star man to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it happened in London, and once more versus Manchester United.

The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still find their top level.

• The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the force he resembled during his peak.
• The defensive duo are set to return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.

This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought Rogers now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial England player.

This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.